A 90% Chance

I very recently ran into a concept that I guess I always knew at some level, but had never heard anyone actually articulate before, and I’m a bit stunned by that fact.

I going to spend some time processing this idea, but in the meantime I want to share it with you and see what you think. Ready?

There is no direct connection between the outcome of our decisions and the quality of our decisions.

Let’s break that down.

It you are shown a box of candy with 90 red and 10 blue candies in it, and offered a bet on which color you will get if you grab a sweet with your eyes closed, your decision is easy. You know that if you bet on red, you have a 90% chance of winning.

If you bet on red, and get red, red was the smart decision.

If you bet on red, and get blue, red was still the smart decision.

If you pull enough candies out of the box, or toss enough coins, the smart decision will eventually pay off, because math.

But when we only get one shot at whatever it is, even if we bet on the 90% chance, or the 99.99% chance, we may still lose.

you can do your best, and things will still go wrong, because that’s how life works.

Which means that things going wrong is not necessarily a sign that we did anything wrong.

I’m still working on my thoughts about this (and reading some more books on the subject, because this is me), but I’d love to hear what you have to say. Leave a comment why dontcha?

Hi! I’m Havva Mahler, a practitioner of Chinese medicine: acupuncture, Chinese herbs, tuina, reflexology, sotai and massage and a habit change consultant. You can normally find me at my clinic in Be’er Sheva or Sderot, or reading something about health and/or motivation. If you would like to read more random health-and-wellness related ramblings sign up here to get future blog posts delivered by email carrier pigeon email.